The risk for Obama is that he will be pressured to push against all Bush policies. But the sooner he realizes that there may be some who, lacking the goodwill for him to succeed, may want him to do just that.

As it stands now, the expectations for Obama are high and extravagant; all this on a member of a race whose sons were once deemed not intelligent enough to quarterback a school football team. But by 1200 Hrs, Tuesday January 20, 2009, the story will be different. He will be the president and the first African-American to do so, much to the pride of Africa and horror of some.

Our pride as Africans, therefore, may also be at risk.  The high expectations from the rest of the world, that have translated to lofty approval ratings in the United States for Obama, push up the risk.  For, there has never been a time in history when so much hope was placed on the shoulder of one man, an American president and this one happens to be a black. 

The thought alone and how all that expectations came about would make you shudder with fright.  And it is frightening because there is the possibility that some followers of Obama today may not be sincere.  They may turn out to be lacking in goodwill. We will have no way of finding out until four or eight years later when there will be questions about Obama's legacy as there are about Bush’s now.

The central issue about Bush’s legacy is Iraq. Iraq was a war that many felt was unnecessary because, they claimed, the underlying reason was a lie. “Bush lied and people died.” Or, “There were no weapons of Mass Destruction,” yet Bush went to war - a variation on the theme “Bush lied.”

The opinion about Iraq is bad now. But should it change, Bush will be seen as the hero rather than the villain.

Hopefully, President Obama will not base his policies on Iraq on slogans (over simplification). As slogans, they are already vulnerable.  They will not stand the scrutiny that future historians will bring to the assessment of this period.

The current crop of historians has already proven their disdain for both the character and mind of George W. Bush long before he became the president. They are on record for regarding him as without “gravitas.” Incidentally, that word has recently gone out of vogue. But such is the world of pop culture, not intellectual culture.

Future historians may question the wisdom and published material of these pop culture academics of Bush’s generation. In their search for the truth, they will come across events that will force them to ask the following questions.

1. Where would these academics have preferred to live at the close of 2008 - Somalia, Darfur or Iraq? (The choice for living anywhere else is not an option.)

2. Would an African afflicted with the AIDS virus have preferred to live under a Clintonian AIDS policy rather than PEPFAR under Bush?

These are questions that must concern Obama before he signs on any policy changes in Bush’s foreign policy stands because the answer to a successful Obama administration lies in honest answers to the above questions.

Historical events like Iraq don’t happen in isolation. There is always the parallel event that unfolds in another location, within the same historical time frame, that can be used later to illuminate the first event; thus Somalia, Darfur, Iraq and response to the onslaught of AIDS in Africa become key foreign policy issues.

In 1992, under a Clinton administration, there was a humanitarian crisis and anarchy in Somalia. UN peacekeepers were sent there with a United States force as the leader. Policy blunders by the Clinton administration led to the Battle of Somalia and the quick withdrawal of American troops from Somalia.

For 17 years anarchy has reigned in Somalia, much to the discomfort of the rest of the world. Thousands of people are dying in greater numbers than in Iraq. Yet, there is no slogan like “Clinton cut and ran” and people died by the same pop culture that invented one for Bush. Somalia, in short order, has become a veritable haven for pirates who are currently producing dire consequences for world trade on the India Ocean.

The anarchy in Somalia was predictable by 1992. The truth is there was not a single world leader at that time who could stand up and put a stop to the mess like Bush has done in Iraq.

The story is the same for Darfur. As the world waits, poor Sudanese Africans are dying in droves. Bush didn’t lie about Darfur or Sudan. He called the trouble there genocidal. Yet there seems to be the will on the part of world leaders to only “dialogue” – a condition that refuses to see that a strong action is needed in Darfur. The truth is lack of action against genocide in Darfur has killed more than the so called “lie” in Iraq.

The question on AIDS policy speaks volumes about compassion and humanity than anything else and exposes the “lie” of the so called “dialogue” crowd. Since AIDS surfaced in the 80s it has killed more than any war in Africa or Iraq. Are we talking about concern for human lives? Yet, how much has any American president, or for that matter any world leader, spent to fight AIDS in Africa compared to what Bush has?

Just like in Iraq, Bush acted boldly on AIDS in Africa compared to those who talk compassion and do little else. In spite of an ongoing war, his unpopularity rating, and an African-America constituency that voted less than 11% for him, he managed to put in a policy on AIDS that has benefitted Africa greatly, a policy that is at least ten times vastly superior to any of his predecessors’, Clinton included. Obama ought to take note.

The measure of Bush’ greatness or lack of will be the task for future historians and academics. A lot that Obama does in office will also help to frame up Bush’s legacy; like Regan for Carter, or Carter for Nixon; each president a perfect book end for the other.

The easiest way for Obama to slide into ignominy is to go all out against Bush policies, like Carter against Nixon's. There are people who will be willing to push him in that direction and they may be among the same crowd that is now cheering him on; the people who have put up the high expectations but lack the sincerity to back them with deeds.

Lack of sincerity is the most serious infraction Obama has to watch out for.  The supreme example of this insincerity is from people who know what happened before the Iraq war but still pursue the belief that Bush lied about the existence of Weapons of Mass Destruction to get the US into war with Iraq. That belief, if a deliberate lie, was a shared one. The UN Security Council, the French, the Germans and the Russians were fellow believers. The difference was that Bush acted.

Insincerity is to believe also that Bush is the reason why some in the world hate America. As Obama will soon find out, the overwhelming support he has now can be porous.  He is surrounded by a host of people, both white and black and colors in between, all claiming some sort of altruism.  Perhaps, hidden in this display of altruism that elected him is some amount of white guilt.  This latter crowd will feel very accomplished now.  And, having done their job, they will now like to see the first black president of America fail!

So, President Obama, make your policy choices but do not fail us in Africa. Darfur is waiting and so is Somalia. As for AIDS, these are hard times for the American economy, but do your best not to drop the level of funding for PEPFAR. Good luck.

E. Ablorh-Odjidja, Publisher www.ghanadot.com, Washington, DC, Jan 19, 2009

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