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Can NDC lose Election 2016? Issues
and Third parties
Nii Armah Kweifio-Okai
22 November 2015
In a year’s time 7 November 2016, Ghana votes to elect a
government for the seventh time under the fourth republican
constitution. I consider the issues that would determine the
outcome of the election and likely impact of third parties,
i.e. parties other than the two dominant parties - the
National Democratic Congress and the National Patriotic
Party
Ghanaweb data on past elections indicate an unprecedented
7.6% in the 2000 elections not voting for either NPP or NDC
in the first round presidential ballot, and forcing the
incumbent NDC Government to a second round of elections
which it lost. See
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/election2012/
There was hope of emergence of third parties to challenge
the dominance of NPP and NDC and keep them honest but the
hope was quickly dashed. Some third parties were quickly
accommodated within the ruling NPP - notably the splinter
United Ghana Movement and some members of the Nkrumaist
Convention Peoples Party and People National Congress, who
today remain with NPP or have become a dominant source of
opposition to NDC. In addition, NDC in opposition continued
its electoral strategy of decimating the ranks of the
Nkrumaist parties by absorbing key members of the tradition
on a platform of social democratic aspirations that
convinced prospective and captured Nkrumaists that NDC was a
second home that could better guarantee electoral success.
Such Nkrumaists or those so inclined ensured the return of
NDC to Government in 2008 and sustained it during the
party’s alienation of the Rawlingses.
Not surprisingly, in comparison with the high 7.6% of voters
in 2000, there has never been greater than 3% of voters
voting for neither major parties - 2.9% in 2004, 2.95% in
2008 and 1.56% in 2012 (see Ghanaweb link above).
Are we going to see a continuation of the two dominant
parties crowding out the third parties in election 2016?
NPP internal divisions
By election time next year, NPP would be too far behind NDC
to be able to win power on its own. The internal divisions
are so deep and have been allowed to fester for so long that
resolution won’t come easily in time for the next elections.
The internal divisions have alienated sections of the NPP,
more or less solidified the NDC loyalty base and driven
potential supporters to third parties.
Nana Konadu’s National
Democratic Party
NDP founder Nana Konadu Agyemang-Rawlings is the wife of NDC
founder and long-term head of State Jerry Rawlings, and
mother of a current NDC parliamentary candidate Dr Zanetor
Rawlings. That she shows no discomfort as matriarch of an
NDC family attests to her complexity as a political
operative.
Never the woman behind the throne during her husband’s long
reign, she managed to carve a niche in the party grassroots
by forming the 31st December women movement (named after the
day of her husband’s coup d’état in 1981), which she ran as
a dictator to the envy of most in the party.
She formed the NDP following her humiliation at the 2011 NDC
party congress that re-elected then incumbent President
Mills over her as NDC Presidential candidate for the 2012
elections. On the untimely death of Prof Mills in office,
she fronted as NDP presidential candidate to contest the
2012 elections. As is her luck, the Electoral Commission
disqualified her for registration abnormalities, which saved
her an expected ignoble defeat but also fortuitously gave
her time to prepare stronger for election 2016.
Her sporadic condemnation of the current NDC Government has
become more consistent over the past couple of months. No
one knows what she has up her sleeves, which personnel she
will present for her bid for Government but we all know the
issues she will campaign on – Government performance,
corruption in Government and in agencies and parastatals
under Government control. Enter Amidu
Martin ABK Amidu
Martin Amidu was Deputy Attorney General/Minister of Justice
for 12 years under Jerry Rawlings’ PNDC (4 years) and NDC (8
years) governments. During the latter, he was deputy to the
powerful NDC National Chairman Obed Asamoah, over whom he
was ironically preferred as Presidential running mate to
Prof Mills in the 2000 elections. This information might
come in handy in any speculations that Amidu might be a
running mate to Nana Konadu in the 2016 elections,
especially as Obed believed Rawlings had a hand in him not
being made a running mate in 2000. See
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Rawlings-betrayed-me-Obed-Asamoah-195282
Martin Amidu held two positions in Prof Mills Government of
2008 to 2012 – a year as Minister of Interior and another
year as Attorney General and Minster of Justice. The
President dismissed him in January 2012 for conduct
involving allegations against ministerial colleagues, which
he declined to withdraw when asked by the President through
an intermediary. That even a non-lawyer would know such
would lead to dismissal makes one wonder whether Amidu
wanted out at that stage and if so at whose instigation or
encouragement. An opposition newspaper has since defended
his conduct. See
http://politics.myjoyonline.com/pages/news/201210/95647.php
Since his dismissal he has earned the nickname Citizen
Vigilante for exposing public corruption and championing
anti corruption cases, including procuring at his own
expense two Supreme Court decisions ordering Woyome,
Waterville Holdings and AustroInvest as well as Spanish
company Isofoton to repay monies received as judgment debt
payments under the NDC Government.
Recently Amidu has locked horns with another anti corruption
crusader journalist/lawyer Anas Aremeyaw Anas over the
latter’s undercover revelations of judicial corruption.
Amidu’s engagement has been so extreme, personal and
vituperative that it can only be deduced he had something
else on his mind. My take is that pressure from NDC over his
crusade against public corruption has forced him to throw
caution to the wind. If that takes him to Nana Konadu’s NDP,
it would add to the unpredictability of the outcome of
Election 2016.
The other not-so-bit players
NDC won the 2012 elections by 0.7% of votes. It obtained
50.7% of the votes compared with NPP’s 47.74%, a difference
of 2.96%. It means if only 0.7% switch to NPP in 2016, there
would be a second round ballot, which NPP will win if third
parties support it.
I have described two long-term NDC stalwarts – Nana Konadu
and Martin Amidu, both with considerable institutional
memory and experience of NDC, both articulate and
persuasive, both with axe to grind. I speculate that they
are capable indeed of disturbing the NDC vote in election
2016. So who are the other likely game changers?
Here I consider the PNC, GCPP, CPP and PPP. My observation
one year from election 2016 is the resolve of each of the
aforementioned four parties to hang on to their traditional
voting base. PNC and GCPP are best at it, the CPP the worst.
PPP is the new kid on the block, so to speak, but polled the
highest votes among third parties at the 2012 elections.
Combined, the four parties may still not be able to
influence election 2016, because my hunch is that their
votes would benefit the two major parties equally if there
were a run off ballot.
Can NDC win Election 2016?
In the light of the above, the question should be more like
- can NDC win election 2016? Rather than, can NDC lose
election 2016?
1. Complacency
The first hurdle NDC must overcome is complacency.
Regardless of what NDC leaders say in public, NDC should
entertain the thought that NPP can win Election 2016 despite
its internal problems. Nana Konadu in my estimation and mind
can make up for NPP losses. And if other third parties chip
in, the likelihood of NDC defeat in Election 2016 is
complete.
2. Running on record
Of all successor governments in post independent Ghana, NDC
2008 to present has the most credible reason to whine about
legacy inherited, in this case from the NPP.
This is a short list of the inherited legacy: $8 billion
debt despite HIPC benefits of $6 billion in 2001 and debt
cancellation in 2006 of $4.5 out of $8 billion debt since
independence; Judgment debts among 936 currently active (
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Ghana-battling-over-536-judgment-debt-cases-395039
); Sale of independently assessed $1.5 billion-worth Telecom
for $900 million with VRA’s fiber optics thrown in as
sweetener and consequent deprivation of a national cash cow
revenue stream; Minimal addition to nation’s power
generation effecting current load shedding nicknamed DUMSOR
with implications for industry and employment; A
ridiculously low Ghana share of 10% from oil revenues
compared with going rate of 40:60 state to oil companies; A
single spine salary structure, imposing financial burden on
an incoming Government, and immediately so by last minute
approval of an across the board 30% increase in salaries for
public/civil servants by outgoing President Kuffour on the
eve of leaving office 7 January 2009; Loss of Dutch funding
for school feeding program due to corruption. Inter alia!
In essence NDC in 2009 was faced with reduced revenue (loss
of Telecom, low share of oil revenue coinciding with global
collapse of oil prices), increased government expenditure
(public sector wages, judgment debts, debt servicing) and
backlog of power generation. A relatively independent
economy may be able to weather the storm, not so easily a
dependent economy like ours
Mills on assumption of power did not make fuss about the
inherited burden and Mahama may have difficulty doing so now
as it would appear an excuse rather than putting in
perspective the magnitude of the challenges NDC inherited.
To NDC’s credit, it went to work immediately after being
elected
- Mills managed to increase the nation’s oil share to 13%,
honored commitments to single spine wage structure, improved
revenue collection and, significantly calmed a ruinously
divided nation angered by the profligacy of a previous
Government. He among all his predecessors set a template for
responsible lawful Governance
- Mahama as “Acting” President in 6 months of 2012 spent
most time campaigning for reelection. On reelection he spent
almost a year fighting off an NPP election petition in the
Supreme Court challenging his election and legitimacy. It is
therefore remarkable that 3 years into his presidency, he
has presided over the most extensive infrastructural
development in recent times, stabilized a wobbly currency
and economy with some external help, achieved the most
efficient revenue collection ever (acknowledged by NPP
Presidential running mate and former BOG deputy Governor Dr
Bawumia
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Raising-revenue-is-no-sin-Mahama-to-Bawumia-395193
), and made the greatest contribution to power generation
since Ghana’s first leader Kwame Nkrumah.
It is my view NDC would be reelected on its record of
achievements in 2016 but only if in the final year of its
current mandate, it assiduously tackles weaknesses and
failings under its watch in order to deprive third parties
the opportunity to determine its fate in election 2016.
3. Negating weaknesses
Here I deal with public corruption and reclaiming SADA, the
Savannah Accelerated Development Authority.
3.1 Public corruption
Almost a year after election as President, 15 November 2013,
President Mahama outlined in detail the Government blueprint
with timelines for fighting corruption when he addressed the
Commission for Human Rights and Administrative Justice and
anticorruption organizations at Flagstaff House. It is an
illustration of the magnitude of the task that then CHRAJ
chair Loretta Lamptey who responded to the President on
behalf of stakeholders present was recently sacked for
corrupt conduct.
Among others, the President outlined how Government would
deal with corruption relating to GYEEDA, SADA, Ghana revenue
Authority, DVLA, Waterville and Isofoton; promised to act on
adverse findings of the Auditor general; and pledged “to
deal firmly with the report of the Sole Commissioner on
Judgment Debts when it is presented”.
http://ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=292131
The Sole Commissioner has since presented a report, on which
a white paper was recently issued. See
http://www.ghana.gov.gh/images/documents/govwhite_paper
.pdttp://www.ghana.gov.gh/images/documents/govwhite_paper.pdf
Together with the various Auditor General reports on
financial irregularities, and the spectacular video evidence
of seasoned investigator Anas Aremeyaw Anas implicating 34
judges and over 180 judicial officers in judicial corruption
( (http://www.dailyguideghana.com/must-read-ghana-in-the-eyes-of-god-the-anas-aremeyaw-anas-story-on-corrupt-judges-part-1/
), there is no shortage of materials on which the Government
can act upon to redeem its battered image of public
corruption ahead of Election 2016.
3.2 Reclaiming SADA
Of the Government agencies that have misappropriated public
monies, the case of SADA remains the most emotive.
Neurobiologists would tell you that the greater the
emotional content of an event, the better it is remembered.
Prof Kwame Karikari underscored thus when he spoke at a
Centre for Democratic development function last year. See
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Northerners-in-Mahama-Gov-t-failing-SADA-North-Karikari-307764
After pointing out how funds for reforestation projects in
North have been misappropriated by people from the North in
charge of the projects, Prof Karikari said:
“SADA has become, as a matter of longstanding national
political consensus, the most enduring popular voice for the
right to develop.”
“One would have thought that leaders from the north in this
particular NDC administration would take advantage of the
national consensus to promote more than anyone else, the
development of the North as envisaged in the establishment
of SADA.”
“ The current crop of Northerners in government needs to
show more commitment to ensure that the Savannah Accelerated
Development Authority (SADA) programme designed to bridge
the gap between the impoverished north and the rich south
works.”
“President John Mahama who certainly must consider himself a
proud son of the north has a single patriotic and historic
responsibility to make SADA work,”
Whether we like it or not, it is from this emotive angle
than Ghanaians would see the failure of SADA. But there is
time to make amends.
On 15 November 2016, President Mahama announced at a
commissioning of a market in Tamale that the Government’s
Youth Employment Agency “would employ 100,000 youth in 2016
as a means of solving the youth unemployment in the country”
and that “many of the beneficiaries would be committed to
aforestation or tree growing as measures of greening the
country to arrest eminent desertification, especially the
Northern parts of Ghana”. See http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Mahama-YEA-to-employ-100-000-youth-in-2016-394384
If this eventuates and goes a long way to reclaiming SADA’s
failed reforestation program, the President would have saved
his party serious inquisition to the next elections. Not to
mention the kudos he would get at the UN summit on climate
change in Paris in two weeks time where all countries are
expected to indicate their contributions to reducing global
warming.
Nii Armah Kweifio-Okai
November 23, 2015
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